Nearly 8,000 animal species at risk as extreme heat and land-use change collide, Oxford study finds

New global analysis shows that by 2100 thousands of vertebrate species could face extinction as climate-driven extreme heat combines with expanding human land use

Almost 8,000 animal species could be pushed closer to extinction by the end of this century as the interacting effects of climate change-driven extreme heat and human land-use change create increasingly unsuitable conditions across their habitats, according to new research from a international research team led by Dr Reut Vardi of the School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford.

The study, ‘Effects of future climate extreme heat events and land use changes on land vertebrates’, published today in Global Change Biology, assessed nearly 30,000 species of amphibians, birds, mammals, and reptiles. It examined how future extreme heat events and projected land-use changes will affect species across their preferred habitats and thermal limits.

Dr Reut Vardi, Postdoctoral Researcher, School of Geography and the Environment, said:

‘Our research highlights the importance of considering the potential effects of multiple threats together to get a better estimation of their potential impact. It further stresses the urgency of conservation and mitigation actions globally to prevent immense losses to biodiversity.’

By 2100, up to 7,895 species are expected to face extreme heat events, unsuitable land-use changes, or both across their entire range - conditions that could place them at risk of global extinction.

Across the four scenarios the study explored, the most severe suggests species could experience unsuitable conditions across more than half (52%) of their range on average. Even under the most optimistic scenario, species will still face unsuitable conditions due to both factors across 10% of their range on average.

The combined effects of climate and land-use change are projected to be particularly acute in regions including the Sahel, the Middle East, and Brazil.

Under two of the scenarios modelled, more than half of all Data Deficient (>77%), Near Threatened (>50%), or threatened species (Vulnerable, Endangered, and Critically Endangered; >60%) will experience unsuitable conditions across at least half of their range.

The findings underline how future environmental changes could dramatically reshape global biodiversity, and the importance of identifying and mitigating these interacting threats. 

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Article DOI: 10.1111/gcb.70625

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