Jeonbuk National University researchers examine trends and factors of urban shrinkage in medium-sized cities

Cities do not always grow in a straight line. Like living organisms, they experience growth, maturity, and sometimes decline. This decline, known as urban shrinkage, is a natural phase in the urban life cycle. It is common in industrialized cities, marked by aging social infrastructure resulting from population decline.

Population decline becomes inevitable after cities reach their peak. This phenomenon has been widely studied in China and around the world. However, most existing research has focused on large and small cities, overlooking the equally important medium-sized cities. Medium-sized cities play a critical role in regional development and are increasingly recognized as key drivers of future growth and development. Yet, their complexity and multidimensional characteristics make analysis difficult.

To address this gap, Professor Jeewook Hwang and Ph.D. student DongLin Yuan from the Department of Urban Engineering at Jeonbuk National University in South Korea examined urban shrinkage in China’s medium-sized cities at the county level.  “Our study mapped where shrinkage is occurring and identified the demographic and social factors most strongly driving it,” explains Prof. Hwang. “These insights can help governments design more effective policies to support sustainable urban development. Their study was made available online on July 08, 2025, and published in Volume 151, Issue 3 of the Journal of Urban Planning and Development on September 01, 2025.

The researchers used population data from the fifth (2000), sixth (2010), and seventh (2020) national censuses of China. First, the researchers examined the extent of urban shrinkage in medium-sized cities from 2000 to 2020. Using population change rates as an indicator of urban shrinkage, they categorized cities into five shrinkage levels. The results showed that more than 57.5% (approximately 497) of medium-sized county-level cities experienced urban shrinkage. Level I, representing 1% to 5% shrinkage, was the most common, followed by Levels II (6% to 10% shrinkage) and V (> 20% shrinkage).

Next, the researchers conducted spatial analysis, which showed that shrinking cities are geographically clustered together and that this clustering becomes more significant over time. The analysis also revealed that the overall distribution of urban shrinkage shifted from northeast-to-southwest.

Lastly, to understand the influence of socioeconomic factors on urban shrinkage, the researchers employed a geographical detector model. The exodus of the working-age population was the primary driver of urban shrinkage. The size of the underage or primary school-age population and fiscal expenditure also had a significant influence. In contrast, industrial and economic factors had a relatively weaker influence.

Based on these findings, the researchers proposed several policy recommendations to mitigate urban shrinkage. These include establishing special economic zones, improving education and public welfare services, as well as optimizing industrial structure.

“Our findings highlight which medium-sized cities are most vulnerable to shrinkage and the key factors behind it,” concludes Prof. Hwang. “We hope this evidence will support long-term strategies to strengthen these cities and promote sustainable development.”

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Reference      
DOI: 10.1061/JUPDDM.UPENG-5631

About Jeonbuk National University
Founded in 1947, Jeonbuk National University (JBNU) is a leading Korean flagship university.Located in Jeonju, a city where tradition lives on, the campus embodies an open academic community that harmonizes Korean heritage with a spirit of innovation.Declaring the “On AI Era,” JBNU is at the forefront of digital transformationthrough AI-driven education, research, and administration.JBNU leads the Physical AI Demonstration Project valued at around $1 billion and spearheads national innovation initiatives such as RISE (Regional Innovation for Startup and Education) and the Glocal University 30, advancing as a global hub of AI innovation.

Website: https://www.jbnu.ac.kr/en/index.do

About Professor Jeewook Hwang
Dr. Jeewook Hwang is a Professor of Urban Planning and Development and Director of Urban Regeneration & Spatial Information Center at Jeonbuk National University. His group is developing approaches to predict and control population shrinkage through urban regeneration and smart city planning. In particular, Hwang, together with DongLin Yuan and GeunSu Ji, Ph.D. candidates, is developing real-estate market & policy prognosis and evaluation using the DID (Difference in Difference) method. Before joining Jeonbuk National University, he obtained a Diploma degree (M.S.) in 1996 and a Doctoral degree (Ph.D.) in 2000 from the faculty of Raumplanung at TU Dortmund, Germany.