How roast level and sensory quality shape the price of specialty coffee beans

By analyzing more than 1,600 observations combining expert sensory scores and consumer ratings, the study shows that retail prices are not driven by quality alone, but by a complex interaction between roast level, flavor-related attributes, and packaging size. In particular, flavor and aftertaste emerge as the most powerful price drivers, while lighter roasts amplify the economic value of high sensory scores.

Coffee is a globally significant agricultural commodity that supports millions of livelihoods and generates tens of billions of dollars in export revenue each year. Within this market, specialty coffee is one of the fastest-growing segments, valued for distinctive flavor profiles, careful production practices, and premium prices. Specialty beans are assessed on a 100-point sensory scale, with scores of 80 or above defining specialty grade. Although food science has extensively examined how roasting shapes aroma, acidity, body, and flavor, far less is known about how these sensory attributes translate into retail prices. Most economic studies emphasize price volatility, trade, and origin, leaving a gap in understanding how roast level and sensory quality jointly influence consumer-facing prices.

A study (DOI:10.48130/bpr-0024-0029) published in Beverage Plant Research on 01 November 2024 by Mohammed Al-Mahish & Reem Alfayadh, King Faisal University, shows that in specialty coffee, price is not just a reflection of quality—but of how quality is expressed, roasted, packaged, and perceived.

Using a log–log econometric regression framework with robust statistical controls, the researchers systematically evaluated how bag size, geographic origin, roast level, and five key sensory attributes—aroma, acidity, body, flavor, and aftertaste—jointly shape the retail prices of specialty coffee beans, with model validity assessed through R-squared, adjusted R-squared, regression standard error, and the Breusch–Pagan heteroskedasticity test. The results indicate that the log–log specification outperforms non-log models, and heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors ensure reliable inference. Empirically, the analysis confirms the inverse demand principle: larger coffee bags are cheaper per gram, with a 1% increase in bag size leading to an average 0.13% decrease in price, implying clear cost savings for consumers purchasing in bulk and higher margins for sellers offering smaller premium packages. All sensory attributes exert statistically significant positive effects on price, demonstrating that quality consistently commands a premium; however, flavor and aftertaste emerge as the most influential drivers, outweighing aroma, acidity, and body, and underscoring the economic importance of the lingering sensory experience. Roast level further moderates these effects, revealing that light and medium roasts strongly amplify the price impact of quality attributes. In lightly roasted beans, a 1% increase in aroma, acidity, flavor, or aftertaste can raise prices by more than 1%, suggesting that lighter roasting better preserves nuanced characteristics that consumers value financially. By contrast, darker roasts dampen the marginal price effects of some attributes, even though dark-roasted coffees are priced higher on average. Origin also plays a significant role, with beans from Asia and Central and South America, as well as select regions such as Hawaii and Papua New Guinea, commanding higher prices than African coffees. Interaction analyses further show that aroma interacts positively with roast level, acidity–roast interactions are negative, and body exhibits strong positive interactions across all roasts.

This study demonstrates that specialty coffee prices are shaped by a combined effect of quantity, sensory quality, roast level, and origin. Larger bag sizes lower unit prices, while higher sensory ratings—especially flavor and aftertaste—command significant premiums. Importantly, roast level moderates how quality attributes translate into price, with light roasts amplifying their economic value, offering data-driven insights for both consumers and sellers.

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References

DOI

10.48130/bpr-0024-0029

Original Source URL

https://doi.org/10.48130/bpr-0024-0029

About Beverage Plant Research

Beverage Plant Research (e-ISSN 2769-2108) is the official journal of Tea Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences and China Tea Science Society. Beverage Plant Research is an open-access, online-only journal published by Maximum Academic Press. Beverage Plant Research publishes original research, methods, reviews, editorials, and perspectives that advance the biology, chemistry, processing, and health functions of tea and other important beverage plants.