New research reveals how dread shapes decision-making

A new study reveals that people are far more emotionally affected by anticipating negative future outcomes than by imagining positive ones, helping to explain why many individuals avoid uncertainty and prefer decisions to be resolved sooner rather than later.

Research from the Universities of Bath and Waterloo (Canada) shows that when people imagine future losses, the emotional impact of dread is more than six times stronger than the pleasure they feel from anticipating equivalent gains.

Analysing large-scale UK household survey data, researchers found that this emotional imbalance plays a central role in shaping economic behaviour. Individuals who experience stronger negative than positive anticipatory emotions are significantly more likely to avoid risk and less willing to wait for delayed outcomes - even when waiting could lead to greater rewards.

Chris Dawson, Professor of Economics and Behavioural Science from the University of Bath’s School of Management, said: “For many people, the dread of what might go wrong outweighs the pleasure from imagining what might go right. Put simply, the emotional pain from anticipating a £10 loss is far stronger than savoring the thought of a £10 gain.

“This imbalance shapes how much risk people are willing to take and how long they are prepared to wait, potentially influencing decisions across everyday life, from money and careers to health and wellbeing.”

Published in Cognitive Science, the study analyses data from nearly 14,000 individuals between 1991 and 2024. This allowed the researchers to track emotional responses to expectations about future finances and examine how these anticipatory emotions influence decisions involving both risk and delay. Most real-world choices, such as investing, changing jobs, or making health decisions, combine uncertain outcomes with waiting for outcomes.  

The study also confirms that losses loom larger than gains once outcomes are experienced. The emotional impact of realised losses was found to be roughly twice as strong as that of equivalent gains, consistent with the established economic theory of loss aversion.

The research advances a new theoretical perspective that links risk and time preferences, helping to explain the observation that people who are more risk-averse also tend to be more impatient.

Co-author Dr Sam Johnson, from the Department of Psychology at the University of Waterloo, said: “We see that risk avoidance and impatience are psychologically connected. People try to avoid choices with possible negative outcomes and also prefer outcomes to be resolved sooner, in order to minimise the emotional burden they experience - the dread of anticipating bad news.”

The researchers also found substantial variation between individuals. Some people experience anticipatory emotions far more vividly than others, helping to explain why attitudes to risk and patience differ so widely across the population. Notably, the effects of anticipatory dread remained significant even after accounting for personality traits, mental health, income, and education.

The researchers say the findings have implications for understanding real world behaviour, including financial decision-making, long-term planning, health choices, and responses to uncertainty.

“The study helps to explain why people often postpone or avoid choices that are objectively beneficial in the long run,” said Professor Dawson. “For example, individuals may delay or avoid medical screening if results take a long time to arrive. Even when screening reduces health risks, the dread of waiting for potentially bad news can discourage testing. Similarly, long waits in areas such as investment decisions can deter engagement simply by prolonging the emotional burden of uncertainty.”

Asymmetric Anticipatory Emotions and Economic Preferences: Dread, Savoring, Risk, and Time is published in Cognitive Science at: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/cogs.70160.