A pioneering high-resolution, stakeholder-informed modeling approach aims to transform national energy transition planning

As nations commit to mid-century net-zero emissions targets, the gap between ambitious goals and practical, feasible implementation plans remains wide. Traditional energy modeling often lacks the granularity and stakeholder input needed to guide real-world investment and policy. A new approach to energy transition modeling, catalyzed by researchers at Princeton University’s Andlinger Center for Energy and the Environment, aims to bridge this gap by combining unprecedented spatial resolution with extensive stakeholder engagement.

The Princeton researchers, Chris Greig, Jesse D. Jenkins, Eric D. Larson, and Wei Peng published their perspective on advancing energy-transition decision support in Technology Review for Carbon Neutrality on December 31, 2025.

"In this article, we present insights from the Net-Zero America project and follow-on sibling studies worldwide. The core of our approach is pairing high-resolution, open-source modeling with deliberative engagement with a broad set of stakeholders from the very beginning. This helps anchor the analysis in on-the-ground realities and builds trust needed for the findings to influence decisions," said the corresponding author Eric D. Larson, a Senior Research Scientist at Princeton University.

The researchers argue that while global integrated assessment models are useful for setting long-term targets, they often lack the detail required for national implementation. Conversely, typical national planning models are limited by computational tractability and lack of broad stakeholder input. The emerging field of Macro-Energy Systems (MES) seeks to overcome these limitations by leveraging advanced, open-source planning models and stakeholder-informed cross-disciplinary analysis.

The landmark Net-Zero America (NZA) study demonstrated the impact of this approach. It modeled multiple technologically distinct pathways for the U.S. to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, downscaling results to map potential energy project sites at a resolution of 4-8 kilometers. The high-resolution mapping allowed stakeholders to visualize the staggering scale of infrastructure required—from wind farms to transmission lines—and its implications locally for land use, employment, air pollution related health damages, and capital investments.

"The NZA study was unique because it used objective, policy-neutral modeling to paint vivid pictures of possible futures at local scales, while simultaneously engaging widely with stakeholders from government, industry, finance, and civil society," Larson explained. "This combination moved the discussion from debating assumptions to focusing on common challenges and 'no-regrets' priorities for the current decade."

In the wake of the NZA study, Larson and his co-authors have been catalyzing a growing number of "Net-Zero X" (NZx) projects, with local research teams in Australia, Brazil, China, India, Poland, and the Republic of Korea now employing the same high-resolution, open-source methodology tailored to their national contexts. A key enabling tool is MacroEnergy.jl, a new flexible, high-performance energy systems planning model developed by Princeton, MIT, and NYU researchers and released as open-source software in 2025.

"Open-source tools like MacroEnergy.jl are crucial for democratizing this capability and fostering a global community of researchers improving these methods," said Larson. "Each NZx study adapts the scenario design to local priorities—for instance, India's study emphasizes sustainable development priorities amid deep uncertainty over emissions reductions pathways, while Brazil's integrates complex, agriculture, land-use change, and bioenergy dynamics."

The paper concludes that while the NZA/NZx framework sets a new standard for decision-support modeling, further model improvements are urgently needed. Future models must better incorporate real-world risks and frictions, such as project development challenges, corporate capital discipline, and competition for critical resources like land, water, and minerals.

"Ultimately, the goal is to provide decision-makers with not just cost-optimal pathways on a spreadsheet, but a textured, visually compelling, and stakeholder-vetted understanding of the scale, pace, and implications of the energy transition," Larson said. "This is essential for turning net-zero pledges into achievable plans."