AIT research charts climate-smart pathways to resilient farming in Asia

Climate change is no longer a distant forecast for Asia's farmers — it is reshaping harvests today. In Thailand, Sri Lanka, and India, new studies led by the Asian Institute of Technology (AIT) show that staple crops such as maize, rice, sorghum, and paddy face mounting risks from intensifying droughts, shifting land use, and rising heat. But the research also points to practical strategies that can help farmers adapt — from fine-tuning planting calendars to developing drought-tolerant cultivars.

The water story at the heart of farming
Water scarcity is emerging as the central challenge. In northern Thailand's Nan River Basin, more than 64% of the nation's maize is grown, yet AIT researchers found that climate-induced droughts could cause unsuitable farmland to nearly double in the coming decades. Already, only about 42% of land is moderately suitable for maize, and prolonged droughts are projected to become the norm.

In Northeast Thailand's Mun River Basin, the risks multiply when deforestation and crop expansion are factored in. Under business-as-usual land use, agricultural droughts could become 45–67% longer and over 100% more severe, showing that human land decisions intensify climate pressures.

Zooming in: when centimeters decide survival
AIT's field research on rainfed sorghum revealed how microtopography — slight rises or depressions in a field — can make or break harvests. Yield varied by up to 35% across micro-topographic positions, with small depressions holding enough moisture to sustain crops, while elevated patches suffered water stress. Water productivity followed the same pattern, underscoring that precision soil and water management at the micro-scale is an essential climate adaptation tool, not a luxury.

Adapting rice to tomorrow's climate
In Thailand's Lower Chao Phraya Basin, the country's rice bowl, climate models project yield declines of up to 33% by the late century, with irrigation demand rising by as much as 53% under a high-emissions scenario. AIT's crop simulations tested adaptation strategies and found clear lifelines: shifting planting 1–2 weeks earlier, adjusting fertilizer timing, and introducing heat- and drought-tolerant cultivars can help farmers sustain productivity.

Lessons beyond Thailand
The findings resonate across South Asia. In Sri Lanka, analysis of 18 districts (1981–2019) shows that on average 5% of paddy land goes unharvested each year, with crop failures rising to 30% in some districts during bad years. Failures are most pronounced in rainfed systems and in the Maha season (October–March), where climate variability strikes hardest.

Meanwhile in southern India, AIT researchers applied a new vulnerability assessment framework in Tamil Nadu’s Lower Bhavani Irrigation Project. They found that while paddy yields themselves are relatively stable, the water supply–demand balance is highly vulnerable to climate variability — underscoring the urgency of smarter irrigation and cropping calendars.

From data to decisions: AIT's regional role
Together, these six studies provide a joined-up view of Asia's food future:

• Maize lands shrinking in northern Thailand.
• Droughts intensified by land use change in the northeast.
• Field-level yield swings of 35% in sorghum due to microtopography.
• Rice yields dropping 33% in the Chao Phraya Basin, with water demand rising 53%.
• Recurring paddy failures in Sri Lanka's dry and intermediate zones.
• Irrigation systems at risk in India's Lower Bhavani Basin.

Across scales — from soil centimeters to river basins, from farmer fields to national food systems — the message is clear: adaptation is possible, but only if science and policy move together.

“Farmers don't experience climate change in pieces — they face heat, drought, and land pressure all at once,” said Prof. Manukid Parnichkun, Vice President for Academic and Research of AIT. “Our research equips them and their governments with integrated strategies that are both practical and scalable.”

With food security on the line for millions, AIT is positioning itself as a regional hub for climate–agriculture solutions, linking local evidence with regional frameworks to help Asia's farmers weather an uncertain future.

References

1. Bastola, R., Shrestha, S., Mohanasundaram, S., & Loc, H. H. (2024). Climate change-induced drought and implications on maize cultivation area in the upper Nan River Basin, Thailand. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 15(2), 628–651. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2023.521

2. Khadka, D., Babel, M. S., Tingsanchali, T., Penny, J., Djordjevic, S., Abatan, A. A., & Giardino, A. (2024). Evaluating the impacts of climate change and land-use change on future droughts in northeast Thailand. Scientific Reports, 14(1), 9746. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-59113-4

3. Madolli, M. J., Kanannavar, P. S., Paul, N. C., Gade, S. A., Datta, A., & Himanshu, S. K. (2025). Assessing the effects of spatial variability of field microtopography on crop yield, soil water, and water productivity under rainfed sorghum production system. Water Conservation Science and Engineering, 10(1), 21. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41101-025-00345-4

4. Vilavan, S., Das, D., Ullah, H., Gade, S. A., Ahmed, S. F., Cha-um, S., Praseartkul, P., Datta, A., & Himanshu, S. K. (2024). Exploring the impacts of climate change and identifying potential adaptation strategies for sustainable rice production in Thailand’s Lower Chao Phraya Basin through crop simulation modeling. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 196(12), 1192. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-024-13362-y

5. Chandrasiri, C. K., Tsusaka, T. W., Zulfiqar, F., & Datta, A. (2023). Impact of climate change on paddy crop failure under different water regimes in Sri Lanka. Singapore Journal of Tropical Geography, 44(3), 386–413. https://doi.org/10.1111/sjtg.12495

6. Kamalamma, A. G., Babel, M. S., Sridhar, V., & Vellingiri, G. (2023). A novel approach to vulnerability assessment for adaptation planning in agriculture: An application to the Lower Bhavani Irrigation Project, India. Climate Services, 30, 100358. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100358