Palm biodiesel in Malaysia shows limited impact on transport emissions
An economic analysis examining three decades of data reveals that while palm biodiesel slightly reduces CO₂ emissions in the long run, its short-term use is associated with a minor increase, complicating decarbonization strategies
image: Biodiesel and its potential to mitigate transport-related CO₂ emissions
Credit: Saeed Solaymani
A Mixed Outlook for Biofuel
A new study from Arak University offers a detailed examination of palm biodiesel's role in curbing transport-related carbon dioxide emissions in Malaysia. The research, conducted by Saeed Solaymani, analyzed data from 1990 to 2019 to determine the real-world effect of this biofuel. The findings show that while biodiesel offers a small long-term benefit, its immediate impact is less clear and its overall contribution to reducing emissions is minimal compared to the effects of fossil fuels.
Malaysia's Transport Emission Challenge
As a major producer of palm oil, Malaysia has explored palm-based biodiesel as a way to reduce its dependency on petroleum diesel and lower its carbon footprint. The transport sector is the nation's second-largest source of CO₂ emissions. In response, the Malaysian government has been implementing a blending program to mix biodiesel with conventional diesel. This investigation sought to measure the effectiveness of this strategy and predict the outcome of future increases in biodiesel use.
A Tale of Two Timelines
The study discovered a complex relationship between biodiesel consumption and CO₂ emissions that changes over time. In the long run, a one percent increase in biodiesel use was associated with a 0.001 percent decrease in road transport carbon emissions. However, in the short run, the same increase was linked to a 0.004 percent rise in emissions. The report suggests this short-term increase may be connected to land use changes, such as deforestation, required to expand oil palm plantations for biofuel production.
Modeling Future Fuel Scenarios
Using a dynamic autoregressive distributed lag ARDL model, the study simulated the effect of increasing the biodiesel blend to 10 percent, a national target. The simulation indicated that this increase would moderate the rate of growth in road transport carbon emissions by 2030, but it would not cause a substantial overall reduction. The analysis suggests that under current conditions, simply increasing the biodiesel blend will not be enough to achieve significant long-term emission cuts.
The Dominance of Fossil Fuels
The analysis put the minor effect of biodiesel into perspective by quantifying the much larger impact of conventional fuels. The results showed that a one percent increase in motor petrol consumption raises road transport CO₂ emissions by 0.55 percent, while a one percent increase in diesel consumption elevates emissions by 0.45 percent. These figures demonstrate that consumption of traditional fossil fuels remains the principal driver of transport emissions in Malaysia.
Policy and Technology Recommendations
Based on these findings, the study concludes that Malaysia's current biodiesel strategy will not be sufficient to meaningfully reduce future CO₂ levels from the transport sector. Saeed Solaymani proposes that for biodiesel to have a greater effect, the government must support more research and development into advanced conversion technologies. Additionally, promoting other clean energy sources and implementing policies that encourage their adoption are necessary steps toward achieving sustainable development goals. Improved management of oil palm plantations is also needed to balance fuel production with food security and environmental protection.
Corresponding Author:
Saeed Solaymani
Original Source:
https://doi.org/10.1007/s44246-023-00067-z
Contributions:
Saeed Solaymani contributed to the study's conceptualization, methodology, formal analysis and investigation, original draft preparation, review and editing, software, resources, editing, supervision.