Turning road rights into green power corridors: multi-scenario and multi-credibility interval estimation of provincial expressway PV potential

Highway transport accounts for about 80% of carbon emissions in the transportation sector. Integrating PV power generation into expressways is critical for zero-carbon transport and energy self-consistency. However, existing studies mostly focus on single scenarios or point estimations, lacking provincial-scale, multi-scenario, uncertainty-considered interval methods for planning.

This study innovatively constructs a multi-scenario and multi-credibility interval model, including service areas, toll stations, maintenance bases, and slopes, with 50%–90% confidence intervals to reflect generation volatility. Application to Hunan expressways shows: PV power cannot meet energy demand in the short term; basic self-sufficiency is achievable in the medium term; and self-sufficiency plus surplus grid connection is realized in the long term. Slopes present the greatest potential, far exceeding service areas, toll stations, and maintenance bases.

This method provides a standardized tool for provincial expressway PV assessment worldwide, supporting the construction of zero-carbon green power corridors and national “dual carbon” goals. The work entitled “Research on the Interval Calculation of Photovoltaic Power Generation Potential of Provincial Expressways under Multi-Scenario and Multi-Credibility Conditions” was published in Journal of Engineering Studies (available online on Mar. 24, 2026).