New research from the University of Oxford provides the first quantitative evidence that drought exposure over the last 12 months is associated with increased risk of sexual, emotional and physical violence among adolescents in Southern Africa. This risk rises substantially during cumulative droughts over 2 years.
Analysing data from over 20,000 adolescents (aged 13-24) in Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Lesotho, the study finds girls and young women, older adolescents (aged 18-24) and those living in rural areas face the highest risk of violence during drought conditions.
Water availability in Southern Africa is expected to decline by 30% by 2050. As water scarcity intensifies, levels of poverty, food insecurity and mental health distress increase – worsening inequalities, separating families and driving harmful coping mechanisms such as child marriage, child labour, and forced migration. This is particularly alarming in sub-Saharan Africa, where an estimated 79 million girls experience sexual violence before age 18 and 1 in 2 children experience a form of violence in the past year. The study highlights that climate change is intensifying this crisis for the region’s 226 million adolescents.
The study, published in The Lancet Planetary Health and led by Dr Bothaina Eltigani, DPhil student and researcher at Oxford’s Department of Social Policy and Intervention (DSPI), found adolescents living in drought conditions experienced:
- 46% increase in sexual violence by non-partners
- 51% increase in emotional violence by partners in areas affected by drought, rising to 73% increase for non-partner emotional violence
- 39% increase in physical violence by partners and 41% by non-partners.
- Up to double the risk of experiencing all forms of violence in regions affected by cumulative drought (over 24 months).
- Higher risk for girls (vs boys), particularly for non-partner sexual violence and partner and non-partner emotional violence.
- Greater risk of several violence forms amongst older adolescents (aged 18-24) compared to those 13-17 years.
- Higher exposure to non-partner physical violence in rural areas, especially under severe drought conditions.
Dr Bothaina Eltigani commented: 'As a doctor in Sudan, I saw how drought and water scarcity place enormous strain on families – especially in rural communities, where the burden is greatest and the risks to young people’s safety often go unseen. While direct health effects of droughts are increasingly well-understood, the link to violence against adolescents remain largely unexplored. Our findings show that drought disproportionately affects already vulnerable groups and underscores a clear call to action: adolescent and youth-focused, gender-sensitive violence prevention strategies must be integrated into early warning systems with sustainable climate adaptation measures – particularly in regions facing prolonged drought. With climate change expected to increase both the frequency and severity of droughts in Southern Africa, integrating violence prevention into climate resilience strategies is no longer optional – it is essential.'
The study also highlights why vulnerability differs across groups:
- Gender: Girls face higher risk due to unequal power structures that restrict access to climate adaptation resources and decision-making, while increasing unpaid domestic responsibilities which place them at higher risk of victimisation – such as water and fuel collection.
- Age: Older adolescents (aged 18-24) face increased risks from partners and others due to greater mobility, financial responsibility, and social mixing.
- Location: Rural communities are more exposed due to reliance on rain-fed agriculture and weaker infrastructure.
Further information, images and media interviews/ enquiries:
The full study is published in The Lancet Planetary Health
- TITLE: Drought exposure and the risk of sexual, emotional, and physical violence against adolescents in Zimbabwe, Mozambique, and Lesotho: an observational study
- AUTHORS: Dr Bothaina Eltigani, Department of Social Policy and Intervention, University of Oxford (lead author); Roman Hoffmann, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (second author) and Professor Lucie Cluver, Department of Social Policy and Intervention, University of Oxford (senior author)
- URL: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(26)00021-5/fulltext
Media contact: Rachel Fisher, Department of Social Policy and Intervention
E: communications@spi.ox.ac.uk
M: +44 7711 352715
About the research
The study combines violence victimisation and demographic data from 20,290 adolescents (aged 13-24) in the Violence Against Children Surveys (VACS) from Zimbabwe, Mozambique, and Lesotho. For this study, drought was defined as a prolonged period of below average rainfall.
Please refer to:
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2018. Global Warming of 1.5°C: an IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/
- UNICEF. 2024. Over 79 million girls and women in sub-Saharan Africa subjected to rape or sexual assault as children. https://www.unicef.org/esa/press-releases/over-79-million-girls-and-women-sub-saharan-africa-subjec…
- Hillis, Susan, James Mercy, Adaugo Amobi, and Howard Kress. 2016. “Global Prevalence of Past-Year Violence Against Children: A Systematic Review and Minimum Estimates.” Pediatrics 137, no. 3 (2016): e20154079. https://doi.org/10.1542/peds.2015-4079
This work was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) [grant number NE/W004976/1] as part of the Agile Initiative at the Oxford Martin School.
About Department of Social Policy and Intervention, University of Oxford
Department of Social Policy and Intervention (DSPI) at the University of Oxford is a global centre of excellence for research and teaching in social policy and the development and evaluation of social interventions.
With a history spanning over a century, DSPI brings together an international, multidisciplinary community of academics and researchers whose work informs social policy and practice in the UK and worldwide. Through high-impact research, peer-reviewed publications and a portfolio of unrivalled graduate programmes, the department influences the social landscape, from the way government funds are allocated to the delivery of local programmes.
About the University of Oxford
Oxford University has been placed number 1 in the Times Higher Education World University Rankings for a record-breaking tenth year running, and number 4 in the QS World Rankings 2026. At the heart of this success are the twin-pillars of our ground-breaking research and innovation and our distinctive educational offer.
Oxford is world-famous for research and teaching excellence and home to some of the most talented people from across the globe. Our work helps the lives of millions, solving real-world problems through a huge network of partnerships and collaborations. The breadth and interdisciplinary nature of our research alongside our personalised approach to teaching sparks imaginative and inventive insights and solutions.
Through its research commercialisation arm, Oxford University Innovation, Oxford is the highest university patent filer in the UK and is ranked first in the UK for university spinouts, having created more than 300 new companies since 1988. Over a third of these companies have been created in the past five years. The university is a catalyst for prosperity in Oxfordshire and the United Kingdom, contributing around £16.9 billion to the UK economy in 2021/22, and supports more than 90,400 full time jobs.
Journal
The Lancet Planetary Health
Article Title
Drought exposure and the risk of sexual, emotional, and physical violence against adolescents in Zimbabwe, Mozambique, and Lesotho: an observational study