The macroeconomics of automation
Osaka Metropolitan University
An Osaka Metropolitan University-led research team developed a theory in which the degree of automation in the aggregate economy emerged endogenously as an equilibrium outcome and can be inferred from standard macroeconomic data.
The team defined the degree of automation as the share of tasks performed by capital rather than labor and embedded it in a task-based production framework with endogenous technology adoption. By aggregating firms’ task-level technology choices, the researchers showed that the economy-wide degree of automation can be inferred directly from standard macroeconomic data.
This framework provided a transparent mapping from observable macroeconomic variables, such as the capital-labor ratio and output per worker, to the degree of automation, allowing automation to be measured without relying on technology-specific indicators. Applying the framework to Japanese manufacturing industries, the researchers found that automation advanced through capital deepening even during periods of slow productivity growth.
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