Distant ocean temperatures found to influence snowfall in Antarctica

Snowfall deep inside East Antarctica has increased in recent decades, and distant ocean temperature changes may be partly responsible. Using long-term climate data and observations from Dome Fuji station, researchers found that the increase in snowfall is strongly linked to atmospheric blocking patterns that carry moist air into inland Antarctica. These patterns are, in turn, influenced by sea surface temperature changes in the subtropical South Atlantic Ocean—highlighting important climate connections across vast distances.

Snowfall in Antarctica plays an important role in regulating global sea levels, but understanding the underlying reason behind the extensive snowfall in the continent’s remote interior remains a major scientific challenge. Changes like the harsh environment, extremely low temperatures, and long periods of darkness make year-round observations difficult, especially when it comes to observing inland regions far from the coast.

Exploring this, research conducted by researchers at the National Institute of Polar Research (NIPR), Japan, reports that snowfall deep inside East Antarctica is influenced by the sea surface temperatures thousands of kilometers away in the South Atlantic Ocean. The study was led by Project Researcher Kyohei Yamada from NIPR, Japan, along with Professor Jun Inoue, Assistant Professor Naohiko Hirasawa, and Assistant Professor Kazutoshi Sato, who are from NIPR and are also affiliated with the Graduate University for Advanced Studies, SOKENDAI, Japan. 

The study was made available online on May 13, 2026, and published in Volume 131, Issue 10 of the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres on May 28, 2026.

The team focused on Dome Fuji station (DF), one of the most remote research sites in Antarctica. They studied weather and snowfall patterns from 1979 to 2024 using ERA5, a modern climate dataset, that combines weather observations with computer-based atmospheric simulations. To check the accuracy of the data, the researchers compared it with detailed measurements collected during the Japanese Antarctic Research Expedition (JARE44) between 2003 and 2004.

As continuous observations in inland Antarctica are rare, the JARE44 dataset proved to be very valuable. The expedition carried out at DF was to measure precipitation rates, cloud conditions, radiation, wind, and atmospheric structure under harsh conditions.

“ERA5 captured Antarctic weather conditions much more accurately than older datasets, however, it still tended to underestimate total precipitation,” says Project Researcher Yamada. Although the system slightly underestimated total snowfall, it was able to capture the frequency and timing of snowfall events more effectively than earlier datasets.

One of the study’s most important findings involved extreme snowfall events. Out of the 311-day observation period, only 12 days were classified as extreme events, yet they accounted for nearly 25% of the total annual snowfall at DF.

The researchers also found that overall snowfall at DF has increased significantly over the past 46 years. However, this long-term increase was mainly caused by snowfall events occurring more frequently, rather than individual events becoming more intense.

To understand the reason behind this, researchers examined large-scale atmospheric patterns over the Southern Hemisphere. They discovered that atmospheric blocking patterns known as “blocking ridges” have become more common near 45°E longitude. These systems help create favorable conditions for snowfall by carrying warm, moist air from coastal areas deep into the Antarctic interior.

The team also discovered that these atmospheric patterns are connected to the sea surface temperature changes in the subtropical South Atlantic Ocean. Thus, warming and cooling in distant ocean regions may influence snowfall patterns far inside Antarctica.

“Antarctic snowfall can be affected by climate changes occurring far beyond the polar region,” notes Project Researcher Yamada.

This study holds a great significance as the snowfall in Antarctica directly affects the stability of the Antarctic ice sheet, which indirectly influences the global sea levels. The research could also improve understanding of ancient climate patterns preserved in Antarctic ice cores. Thus, the reliable confirmation of the ERA5 dataset for inland Antarctica may help improve future studies of Antarctic climate change and help scientists better understand the connectivity of global climate systems across vast distances.

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About Project Researcher Kyohei Yamada from National Institute of Polar Research, Japan

Dr. Kyohei Yamada is a Project Researcher at the National Institute of Polar Research (NIPR), Japan, where he specializes in atmospheric radiation. His research focuses on Antarctic meteorology, precipitation variability, atmospheric radiation, and polar climate processes. He has also conducted research on radiative fluxes, clouds, strong wind events, and extreme rainfall in Japan. To date, Yamada has authored more than seven scientific publications in several reputed international journals. Through his work, he aims to improve understanding of atmospheric processes and climate variability in both polar and mid-latitude regions.

About National Institute of Polar Research, Japan

Founded in 1973, the National Institute of Polar Research (NIPR) is an inter-university research institute dedicated to advancing scientific research and observations in the Arctic and Antarctic regions. As one of the four institutes under the Research Organization of Information and Systems (ROIS), NIPR conducts comprehensive polar research through observation stations and international collaborations. The institute also promotes polar science by supporting collaborative research projects and providing access to scientific data, samples, and materials. NIPR remains Japan’s only institution devoted to comprehensive research activities in both polar regions.

Website: https://www.nipr.ac.jp/english/index.html

About the  Research Organization of Information and Systems (ROIS)

ROIS is a parent organization of four national institutes (National Institute of Polar Research, National Institute of Informatics, the Institute of Statistical Mathematics and National Institute of Genetics) and the Joint Support-Center for Data Science Research. It is ROIS's mission to promote integrated, cutting-edge research that goes beyond the barriers of these institutions, in addition to facilitating their research activities, as members of inter-university research institutes.