A novel simplified prognostic model for 90-day transplant-free survival in patients with severe acute liver injury/acute liver failure

Background and Aims

Early risk stratification of severe acute liver injury (SLI) that may progress to acute liver failure (ALF), is vital for timely intervention, but no universal prognostic assessment tool covers both conditions. This study aimed to develop a simplified prognostic model for early risk assessment in SLI/ALF patients.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study consecutively enrolled SLI patients (including those progressing to ALF) from July 1, 2020 to May 31, 2025. Baseline clinical and laboratory data on admission were collected, with 90-day transplant-free survival as the primary outcome. Independent prognostic factors were screened via Cox regression to build a simplified scoring model, whose performance was compared with the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), King’s College Criteria (KCC), and the Acute Liver Failure Study Group Prognostic Index (ALFSG-PI).

Results

Of 302 patients, 190 (62.9%) achieved 90-day transplant-free survival. Multivariate Cox regression identified international normalized ratio (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.118, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.050–1.191), platelet count (HR: 0.995, 95% CI: 0.993–0.998), and hepatic encephalopathy grade ≥ 2 (HR: 5.187, 95% CI: 3.403–7.907) as independent predictors, forming the HIP (derived from the above-mentioned three predictors) model. It showed good discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC]: 0.82), outperforming MELD (AUC: 0.76, P = 0.019) and KCC (AUC: 0.72, P = 0.002), and performing comparably to ALFSG-PI (AUC: 0.80, P = 0.429). The model also performed robustly in ALF subgroups defined by the American College of Gastroenterology and the 2024 Chinese Medical Association guidelines (AUCs: 0.80 and 0.76, respectively) and achieved an AUC of 0.85 in the validation set.

Conclusions

The HIP model, based on INR, PLT, and HE grade ≥ 2, combines prognostic accuracy with practical simplicity, offering a clinically feasible tool for early risk stratification in SLI/ALF. The HIP model may directly inform clinical decision-making by enabling the identification of high-risk patients, thereby facilitating timely initiation of liver transplantation evaluation or intensified monitoring, particularly in emergency and primary care settings.

Full text

https://www.xiahepublishing.com/2310-8819/JCTH-2026-00075

The study was recently published in the Journal of Clinical and Translational Hepatology.

The Journal of Clinical and Translational Hepatology (JCTH) is owned by the Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University and published by XIA & HE Publishing Inc. JCTH publishes high quality, peer reviewed studies in the translational and clinical human health sciences of liver diseases. JCTH has established high standards for publication of original research, which are characterized by a study’s novelty, quality, and ethical conduct in the scientific process as well as in the communication of the research findings. Each issue includes articles by leading authorities on topics in hepatology that are germane to the most current challenges in the field. Special features include reports on the latest advances in drug development and technology that are relevant to liver diseases. Regular features of JCTH also include editorials, correspondences and invited commentaries on rapidly progressing areas in hepatology. All articles published by JCTH, both solicited and unsolicited, must pass our rigorous peer review process.

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