Disease burden and productivity loss of T2DM in the Western Pacific region from 1990 to 2050: A modeling study using GBD 2021
image: Projections of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate (ASDR) in Western Pacific region by 2050 based on the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model.
Credit: Luyou Dong, Dachuang Zhou, Wenxi Tang
A new study published in Pharmacoeconomics and Policy drew on data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, the World Bank, the United Nations, and the International Labour Organization, to evaluate the disease burden (measured in disability‑adjusted life years, DALYs) and productivity losses (estimated using the human‑capital approach) attributable to type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) among adults aged 20–85 years in the Western Pacific region. In addition, a Bayesian age‑period‑cohort (BAPC) model was applied to project the disease burden trajectory through 2050.
The researchers found that in 2021, the age‑standardised DALY rate (ASDR) for the region was 624.55 per 100,000 population, with substantial cross‑country disparities—Fiji recorded the highest rate (7,322.65 per 100,000) and Australia the lowest (412.18 per 100,000).
From 1990 to 2021, the ASDR exhibited an overall rising trend with fluctuations; Joinpoint regression identified five turning points (four statistically significant), with a brief decline during 2004–2007 and an accelerated increase after 2015 (APC = 1.79%). In terms of productivity losses,
Notably, China saw a 113‑fold surge, from USD 1.25 billion in 1990 to USD 141.72 billion in 2021, while Japan recorded the highest absolute loss (USD 44.18 billion) — yet its growth plateaued after 2010. The total annual regional loss exceeded USD 220 billion in 2021. BAPC model projections indicated that the ASDR would continue to rise, reaching 2,243.12 per 100,000 by 2050.
“Both the disease burden and economic losses from T2DM will further escalate over the coming three decades,” says corresponding author Wenxi Tang. “This highlights an urgent need for comprehensive and sustainable intervention strategies—encompassing health policies, public education, and social protection measures—to reduce health inequalities.”
Nonetheless, the authors acknowledged limitations in data estimation (particularly for small island states) and the use of generalised parameters (e.g., absenteeism rates), and recommend strengthening local data collection and conducting country‑specific analyses to support precision policy‑making.
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Contact the author: Wenxi Tang, School of International Pharmaceutical Business, China Pharmaceutical University, Nanjing, China. tokammy@cpu.edu.cn
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