image: Carla Kazue Nakao Cavaliero: "What some groups are doing today by selling private consulting services, we’re making fully accessible within the open science policy."
Credit: Roberta Sales/Agência FAPESP
A new public, open-source digital platform developed by scientists at the State University of Campinas (UNICAMP) in Brazil and Princeton University in the United States promises to facilitate the formulation of climate policies in Brazil. Named “NetZero Brazil 2050”, the system cross-references georeferenced data on energy demand, land use, and macroeconomics to simulate carbon-neutrality scenarios. In practice, the tool calculates in real time the lowest-cost decarbonization pathways for the country through the middle of this century.
Presented on October 28 by Professor Carla Kazue Nakao Cavaliero of the School of Mechanical Engineering (FEM-UNICAMP) during FAPESP Week Netherlands, the tool allows public officials, academics, and civil society organizations to cross-reference data from 39 sectoral parameters to design transparent, evidence-based energy transition strategies.
Developed with support from FAPESP through the São Paulo Center for Energy Transition Studies (CPTEn) and the São Paulo Center for Innovation in Public Lighting (CePIL), the initiative aims to democratize complex prospective simulation models – that is, it makes the use of advanced forecasting tools accessible to a wider audience, facilitating future planning.
“What some groups are doing today by selling private consulting services, we’re making fully accessible within the open science policy,” Cavaliero told Agência FAPESP. “The goal is for decision-makers, civil society organizations, think tanks, and graduate students throughout Brazil to use those data to propose interdisciplinary and transparent public policies.”
Integrated modeling
According to the researcher, what sets NetZero Brazil 2050 apart is the integration of seven simulation tools that link energy supply and demand to changes in land use and macroeconomic impacts. The platform allows users to adjust 39 key parameters – divided into sectors such as transportation, industry, buildings, agriculture and livestock, energy, and waste – with two to three scenario options for each.
The system’s engine is based on mathematical optimization models. The EnergyPathways tool estimates future energy demand with high sectoral and technological resolution. Next, a model developed in collaboration with Princeton, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), and New York University (NYU) identifies the lowest-cost configuration to meet this demand, taking into account emissions constraints and regional potentials from various sources, such as solar and wind power, biomass, and green hydrogen.
At the same time, another model developed in collaboration with the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, the University of Lisbon in Portugal, and the University of Oxford in England optimizes land use by determining the dynamics of agricultural crops and pastures. The platform also features modules dedicated to agriculture and livestock, waste management, and an input-output model developed by UNICAMP. This tool maps how different sectors of the economy interact with one another, calculating the impact of transitions on job creation and sectoral gross domestic product (GDP).
This approach reveals the interdependencies between sectors. As Cavaliero explains, if one part of the industry is unable to reduce its emissions to zero due to technological limitations, another sector must offset them so that the national net balance is zero.
“Without controlling deforestation, for example, it’ll be impossible to reach neutrality by 2050. The model clearly shows those interdependencies,” said the researcher. “By including financial data and optimizing the scenarios for the lowest cost, we were able to project the necessary investment year by year through 2050. We can say with precision that, to follow a given path, the country will need so many billions of dollars.”
From the state level to city governments
Currently, the platform presents its consolidated results on a state-wide scale for Brazil’s 27 states, using data from the National Energy Balance (BEN) and georeferenced maps. However, the research team is already working on the next phase of the project: making the data available at the municipal level.
To project the data onto the map, the platform uses the SEALS model (developed by the University of Minnesota in the United States), which is being calibrated with information from MapBiomas (a collaborative initiative that maps land cover and land use in Brazil). The goal is to move from the current resolution of 300 meters to 30 meters of ground-level precision.
The transition to the municipal scale will allow mayors and municipal secretaries to identify their cities’ specific contributions to state and national goals. The tool operates on a comparative basis, allowing users to filter and cross-reference more than 70 pre-built scenarios on the platform or generate entirely new simulations.
“Municipal officials will be able to review the results and understand how their municipality fits into the national context,” Cavaliero explained. “A city government can use these projections to inform local policies promoting electric mobility, energy efficiency, or conservation – including setting more ambitious goals as part of its commitment to carbon neutrality.”
Living labs
The creation of NetZero Brazil 2050 is part of a broader innovation ecosystem at UNICAMP, which is home to seven Science Centers for Development (SCDs) supported by FAPESP and focused on the energy transition. The university functions as a living lab on an urban scale – with 2.1 megawatts of solar power installed on rooftops, 100% LED street lighting, electric buses in operation, and Latin America’s first university microgrid, generating annual savings of BRL 15 million in energy costs.
In addition, UNICAMP is moving forward with the implementation of the International Hub for Sustainable Development (HIDS) on a 1.4 million-square-meter site that will include experimental modules for agrovoltaics (a combination of solar panels and agricultural production), biogas, and hydrogen.
This accumulated experience strengthens the international partnership showcased at FAPESP Week Netherlands. The NetZero Brazil project is part of a global network coordinated by Princeton, which has already developed similar platforms for the United States (Net Zero America), Australia, China, India, South Korea, and Poland.
The team hopes to expand cooperation with Dutch institutions – including the universities of Delft, Leiden, and Groningen – by drawing on their expertise in hydrogen technology pathways and the management of living labs.
“The climate transition is a global challenge. By placing data from different countries on interconnected platforms, we gain a broad perspective and avoid penalizing the competitiveness of developing economies through decarbonization,” Cavaliero concluded.
The platform can be accessed at: netzero.eco.br/index-en.html.
For more information on FAPESP Week Netherlands, visit: fapesp.br/week/2026/netherlands.