News Release

New models help predict liver cancer after successful hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment

Digital ILC 2020: European scientists develop new predictive models for HCC in patients with chronic HCV after a sustained virological response to direct-acting antiviral therapy

Peer-Reviewed Publication

Spink Health

Digital ILC 2020

image: Digital ILC 2020: European scientists develop new predictive models for HCC in patients with chronic HCV after a sustained virological response to direct-acting antiviral therapy view more 

Credit: The European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL)

27 August 2020: Predicting who may go on to develop hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after successful treatment for chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection may now be easier thanks to the work of two independent research teams from France and Egypt. The studies, presented at The Digital International Liver Congress™ (DILC) 2020, included cohorts of patients with chronic HCV infection who achieved a sustained virological response (SVR) to direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy and all used readily available clinical parameters to find those at lowest and highest risk of developing HCC in the future. This, they say, could help to individualize HCC surveillance and detect HCC after HCV is cured as early as possible.

DAA-based treatment can achieve an SVR in more than 95% of patients with chronic HCV infection. Despite viral eradication, however, patients with chronic HCV continue to have a residual risk of HCC, especially those with severe underlying liver disease and/or comorbidities. Risk factors and prediction models for HCC are better understood in HCV-infected patients prior to eradication, but these have not yet been established in patients who achieve an SVR with DAA therapy.

Important statistical work was presented by the French group using data from subjects with biopsy-proven compensated cirrhosis from the French ANRS CirVir prospective cohort of patients. They aimed to identify specific longitudinal profiles associated with patients likely to develop HCC after HCV eradication according to serum alpha fetoprotein (AFP) and routine serum biomarkers (gamma-glutamyl transferase [GGT], alanine aminotransferase [ALT] and aspartate aminotransferase [AST]). In this cohort, a total of 142/717 patients with HCV at baseline and 47/413 who achieved SVR developed HCC, over a median follow-up period of 74.2 months. Among those who achieved SVR, the researchers identified two distinct types of patients at an elevated risk of developing HCC: one cluster with elevated serum parameters (n=95; 13.7% HCC incidence) and one with impaired liver function (n=109; 15.6% HCC incidence). A third patient cluster, whose AFP and biochemical marker levels tended towards normalization, had a lower incidence of HCC (n=228; 7.5% incidence). Examining the pre-SVR population also showed clusters of patients with either a globally worsening liver function (n=198; 26.8% incidence) or a trajectory of increasing levels of AFP and serum biomarkers (n=190; 25.3% incidence). Again, a third cluster of biomarker levels that were favourable and stable overall had lower rates of HCC (n=329; 12.5% incidence; p<0.0001 vs the two other clusters).

"These analyses, based on novel statistical methods, suggest HCC surveillance can be refined and improved in order to tailor patient management to achieve optimum outcomes and increase cost-effectiveness," explained presenter and study lead Dr Pierre Nahon of Assistance Publique - Hôpitaux de Paris, Hôpital Jean Verdier, France.

In practical terms, better knowledge of who is most at risk of developing HCC could have an important impact on how screening programmes are implemented. Bringing us close to this goal, both the research team from France and another from Egypt presented potential scoring systems to achieve this goal. The ANRS C022 HEPATHER study used data from a large hepatitis B or C cohort, selecting 7,752 individuals with chronic HCV who were HCC-free, had no detectable hepatitis B virus antigens, and had achieved an SVR 12 weeks after DAA treatment. Individuals were followed for a median of 2.2 years (interquartile range 1.2-3.3 years), during which 220 (2.8%) developed HCC. Eight independent variables were found to be associated with HCC occurrence: male gender, age >64 years at SVR, advanced liver fibrosis (fibrosis scores of 3 or 4 [F3 or F4]), HCV genotype 3, presence of oesophageal varices, baseline serum AFP >5.5 ng/ml, AST to platelet ratio index (APRI) >2 at end of treatment, and previous interferon-based regimen(s) with or without ribavirin. The team then developed an HCC risk score using these variables, enabling stratification of patients into three groups according to HCC risk level (high, intermediate, low) at 1 and 3 years post-treatment. The HCC risk score was found to have a good predictive performance; most individuals evaluated (76.5%) were in the low-risk group at 3 years, with an HCC incidence of <1.5%.

"These results may allow us to target our surveillance towards those at highest risk during the first 3 years after SVR," said Professor Nathalie Ganne-Carrié, also from Assistance Publique - Hôpitaux de Paris, Hôpital Jean Verdier, France, who presented the study findings at ILC 2020.

Working to the same goal, researchers from the Egyptian Liver Research Institute and Hospital undertook a prospective study in which 2,326 patients with chronic HCV infection and advanced hepatic fibrosis or liver cirrhosis (F3 or F4) who achieved an SVR were followed for an average of 24 months (range 12-45 months). One hundred and nine patients (4.7%) developed HCC during the follow-up period. Risk factors for HCC were similar to those observed by the French group, although a smaller number of factors were identified in the Egyptian study: age, sex, serum albumin, AFP, and pretreatment fibrosis stage. Using these variables, a simple scoring system was then developed, which stratified patients into low-, medium- and high-risk groups with a good predictive accuracy. The 2-year cumulative incidence of HCC in these groups was 2.0%, 4.5%, and 10.3%, respectively. If validated, say the researchers, the simple scoring system could help to individualize HCC screening of HCV-infected patients after successful DAA treatment.

"These three studies reflect the complexity of understanding hepatocarcinogenesis and refute the idea that cure of HCV is equal to eliminating the risk of liver cancer," said Dr Jordi Bruix, of the Hospital Clinic of Barcelona, Spain, and EASL Governing Board member. "The proposed scores potentially represent a useful clinical tool to help inform patients about the risk of developing HCC after HCV is cured. These data also reinforce the importance of implementing HCC screening programmes in DAA-treated patients and the need to reinforce research efforts to identify the causes of liver cancer development despite cure of HCV."


About The International Liver Congress™

This annual congress is EASL's flagship event, attracting scientific and medical experts from around the world to learn about the latest in liver research and exchange clinical experience. Attending specialists present, share, debate and conclude on the latest science and research in hepatology, working to enhance the treatment and management of liver disease in clinical practice. This year, the congress is being held entirely digitally due to the global health situation. The Digital International Liver Congress™ 2020 will take place from 27-29 August 2020. For more information on attendance and registration, please visit

About The European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL)

Since its foundation in 1966, this not-for-profit organization has grown to over 4,500 members from all over the world, including many of the leading hepatologists in Europe and beyond. EASL is the leading liver association in Europe, having evolved into a major European association with international influence, and with an impressive track record in promoting research in liver disease, supporting wider education and promoting changes in European liver policy.


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Session details

Session title: General Session II
Date and time of session: Friday 28 August 2020, 14.36-14.51
Presenters: Pierre Nahon, France
Abstract: Profiling of routine serum parameters and AFP evolution in cirrhosis following HCV eradication for stratification of HCC risk: a trajectory clustering analysis from the ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort (GS13)

Session title: HCV Long-Term Management
Date and time of session: Thursday 27 August 2020, 16.15-16.45
Presenters: Nathalie Ganne-Carrié, France, and Gamal Shiha, Egypt
Abstracts: Predictive models for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence in patients with chronic hepatitis C and sustained virological response (SVR) achieved with direct acting anti-viral (DAA) included in the ANRS C022 HEPATHER cohort (AS154) and A simple score for HCC risk stratification in CHC patients with cirrhosis or advanced hepatic fibrosis who achieved SVR following DAA therapy (AS155)

Author disclosures

Pierre Nahon has received fees or funding from AbbVie, AstraZeneca, Bayer, BMS, Eisai, Gilead, MSD and Roche

Nathalie Ganne-Carrié has received invitations to speak at medical meetings from AbbVie, Bayer, Gilead, Ipsen, and consulting fees from Bayer, Gilead and Shionogi

Gamal Shiha has no relevant disclosures


1. Su F, Ioannou GN. Hepatocellular carcinoma risk after direct-acting antiviral therapy. Clin Liver Dis (Hoboken). 2019;13(1):6-12.

2. El-Serag HB, et al. Risk of hepatocellular carcinoma after sustained virological response in veterans with hepatitis C virus infection. Hepatology. 2016;64(1):130-7.

3. Adhoute X, et al. Impact of direct-acting antiviral agents on the risk for hepatocellular carcinoma. Transl Gastroenterol Hepatol. 2017;2:110.

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