News Release

Capturing 40 years of climate change for an endangered Montana prairie

Though cooler and wetter springs drive an increase in grass production compared to 1978 levels, hotter summers mean all that green goes brown faster--and plants have a harder time reinitiating production in the fall

Peer-Reviewed Publication


Capturing 40 years of climate change for an endangered Montana prairie

image: The intermountain bunchgrass prairie at the National Bison Range, Montana, USA at one of the study areas. view more 

Credit: Gary Belovsky

Over 40 years of monitoring, an endangered bunchgrass prairie became hotter, drier and more susceptible to fire annually--but dramatic seasonal changes (not annual climate trends) seem to be driving the biggest changes in plant production, composition, and summer senescence. Gary Belovsky and Jennifer Slade of The University of Notre Dame, Indiana, present these findings in the open-access journal PLOS ONE on December 23.

Intermountain bunchgrass prairie is one of North America's most endangered ecosystems, now covering less than 1 percent of the area it once did. Over the past century, bunchgrass prairies have become warmer and drier, and human-driven climate change is expected to continue that trend, with potential impacts on bunchgrass ecosystems. However, bunchgrass is often overlooked in studies of grasslands.

To better understand the effects of climate change on bunchgrass prairies, Belovsky and Slade studied the National Bison Range, a bunchgrass prairie in Montana, for 40 years. They made repeated observations of plant growth and production, abundances of different plant species, and availability of nitrogen (an important nutrient for plants), generating a comprehensive timeline of ecosystem changes.

Over the course of the study, annual temperatures rose and precipitation declined in the prairie, making it more susceptible to fire. Surprisingly, the researchers found that annual aboveground primary production--the amount of plant material produced every year--rose by 110 percent, associated with increased precipitation and cooler temperatures during the important growth period of late May through June. However, this was associated with a change in plant composition, with a 108 percent increase in invasive species, more drought-tolerant species being favored overall, and declines in dicot non-grass plants (decreasing by 65 percent) over the 40-year study period.

The researchers also found that other ecosystem changes followed seasonal climate trends, instead of annual trends. For instance, summer temperatures were higher than might be expected from annual trends, boosting summer senescence-- the yearly "browning" of green plant material.

These findings highlight the importance of considering local and seasonal changes when forecasting the effects of climate change on a given ecosystem. The authors report that intermountain bunchgrass prairie could be morphing into a different type of grassland that may be previously unknown.

Dr. Belovsky adds: "Forecasting climate change effects on plant production based on expected average annual increased temperature and decreased precipitation may not be appropriate, because seasonal climate changes may be more important and may not follow average annual expectations."


Citation: Belovsky GE, Slade JB (2020) Climate change and primary production: Forty years in a bunchgrass prairie. PLoS ONE 15(12): e0243496.

Funding: Funding to 1st author GEB: National Science Foundation: NSF - NSF DEB-78-02069, NSF BSR-83-07352, NSF DEB-93-17984, NSF DEB-97-07564, NSF DEB-04-15390, NSF DEB-09-18306, NSF DEB-1456511 National Geographic Society Grant FY79 -; University of Michigan Rackham Graduate School -; University of Michigan Vice-President of Research Grant -; USDA/GHIPM (1989-1994) - (GHIPM program ended in 1994); Utah State University Agricultural Experiment Station (1992-1996) -; USDA/ARS and USDA-CSREES/NRICGP (00-35101-9267) - The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

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