News Release

Econometric study on the JUUL system’s market entry in Canada finds vaping product availability could reduce combustible cigarette sales

New data presented by Juul Labs at the AcademyHealth 2020 Annual Research Meeting links the JUUL System's market entry to decreased cigarette sales in the Canadian market

Peer-Reviewed Publication


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San Francisco (July 28, 2020) -- As part of Juul Labs' ongoing engagement with the public health community, the company today announced findings from a new study at the AcademyHealth 2020 Annual Research Meeting linking the JUUL System's market entry to decreased cigarette sales in Canada. The conference, which took place virtually, focuses on the intersection of health, health care, and policy.

The study, conducted and presented by Dr. Shivaani Prakash, Juul Labs' Director of Health Economics and Policy Research, found that the JUUL System's market entry in Canada likely decreased combustible cigarette sales, especially in urban markets. Using city-level data on cigarette and JUUL System sales in Canada and variation in timing of the JUUL System's market entry in a study, researchers ran econometric difference-in-difference models. They found that within the first 12 months of market entry, market entry and availability of the JUUL System likely led to a 1.5% decrease on average in store-level cigarette sales volume, within one large retailer chain. Overall, this could translate to over 400 million fewer cigarettes sold in Canada within the first year of the JUUL System's market entry.

They also found that the decline in cigarette sales magnified as the JUUL System's market share increased in stores, suggesting that local tobacco market competition plays a strong role in uptake and purchase of vaping products. For every 1% increase in the JUUL System's market share at the store-level, there was an associated 0.5% reduction in cigarette sales.

“This work provides strong evidence that the availability of vaping products could reduce cigarette sales, and suggests that providing alternative nicotine products to adult smokers could drive down combustible cigarette consumption,” said Rasmus Wissmann, Vice President of Data at Juul Labs. “Further research is needed to determine the long-term impact of vapor products on cigarette sales, and the net population health impact of such products.”

Identifying the impact of vaping products in global markets can help policymakers understand the role of alternative nicotine products in the commercial tobacco product market, and better evaluate the impact of such products.

As part of the Premarket Tobacco Product Application (PMTA) process in the United States, Juul Labs has built a comprehensive research program focused on examining the public health impact of the JUUL System. This includes research on the JUUL System's impact on the individual user, their ability to convert adult smokers from combustible cigarettes, and the net-population impact on public health.

Juul Labs will continue to share results from its science and research program with the public health communities as it works to support the scientific basis for the category, as well as future regulatory filings.


About the Study

The Impact of Juul Market Entry on Cigarette Sales: Evidence of Store-Level Sales Declines from Canada was presented virtually at the AcademyHealth 2020 Annual Research Meeting.

Researchers used longitudinal panel data to run difference-in-difference panel causal inference models in order to determine if the entry of the JUUL System in a city had an impact on cigarette sales, after controlling for macroeconomic variables and seasonal and location-specific variation with fixed effects. Data points included:

  • Monthly panel data on cigarette sales in Canada at the store-level, drawn from a large convenience store retailer's dataset from October 2017-August 2019
  • Quasi-random variation in date and timing of the JUUL System's entry in a city
  • Measures of the JUUL System's market share among tobacco products

Researchers controlled for macroeconomic variables including average store-level cigarette sales prices, temperature, gasoline prices, unemployment rate, and population size. They also ran models to compare results for stores in urban versus rural areas, as well as to compare results between sales of low versus high-priced cigarettes.

About Juul Labs

Juul Labs' mission is to transition the world's billion adult smokers away from combustible cigarettes, eliminate their use, and combat underage usage of our products. We believe that vapor products can offer adult smokers an alternative to combustible cigarettes and, in so doing, reduce the harm associated with tobacco. Nicotine is addictive and can cause certain harms to health. It would be best if no one used any nicotine product. Anyone who smokes should quit. Adult smokers who have not successfully quit should completely switch to potentially less harmful alternative nicotine products. Juul Labs does not want any non-nicotine users, especially those underage, to try our products, as they exist only to transition adult smokers away from combustible cigarettes.

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