The ambient temperature has a profound impact on the physiology and behaviour of most species. In regions where individuals rely on low temperatures to hibernate effectively, global warming is likely to significantly affect their survival. A team of scientists studied how ambient temperatures shape the energy expenditure of common noctule bats and built a model to predict at which latitudes they could survive hibernation. This model also predicts how the hibernation areas of these bats could change over time. It accurately tracks the northward range shift of this species over the past 50 years and shows a further northeast expansion of up to 14 percent of its current range by 2100 – driven by shorter and warmer winters in Europe.
