① Remaining carbon budget for limiting warming to 2 °C. (IMAGE)
Caption
To achieve the 2 °C target, the total amount of carbon that can still be emitted by human activities is limited. This total allowable carbon emission—called the remaining carbon budget—is illustrated as an hourglass in the left panel. Previous studies, based on Earth System model projections with large uncertainties, estimated the remaining carbon budget at 352 billion tons of carbon (uncertainty range: 2–702 billion tons; black bar on the right panel). By accounting for the degree of agreement between model simulations and observations, the present study refines this estimate to 459 billion tons (uncertainty range: 251–666 billion tons; green bar on the right panel), substantially reducing uncertainty and improving projection accuracy.
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NIES
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