② Observational constraint on the remaining carbon budget for 2 °C in the emission-driven simulations. (IMAGE)
Caption
The horizontal axes represent past global trend in surface air temperature (1980–2014) in °C per 35 years. The vertical axis shows the remaining carbon budget from year 2020 for 2 °C by the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models for RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively (different colors correspond to different models). Pearson’s correlation coefficient (R) and relative reduction of variance (RRV, %) for two scenarios combined is denoted at the bottom of the panel. The black dashed line shows the ordinary least squares regression line and the grey shading indicates its 95% confidence interval. The horizontal box plot indicates the mean (white line), 17–83% range (box) and 5–95% range (horizontal bar) of the observed temperature trends of HadCRUT5 (pink). The vertical box plots show the same as the horizontal box plots but for the (black) and the constrained ranges using the observations (teal). The figure is adapted from Figure 3 of Melnikova et al. (2025)
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