Likelihood changes (IMAGE) National Institute for Environmental Studies Caption Probability distributions for the northwestern Pacific sea surface temperature in August. For 1901-2000, the climate model (CMIP6) ensemble (solid black line) reproduces the observational values (gray shading). For 2001-2020, the observed values (red triangles) are well covered by the CMIP6 ensemble (solid red line) but not by the sub-ensemble forced by natural variations only (thin blue line). For 2031-2050, the most likely level of the projected probability (solid yellow line) exceeds the 2020 level (dashed red line). Credit NIES Usage Restrictions Credit required. License Licensed content Disclaimer: AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the accuracy of news releases posted to EurekAlert! by contributing institutions or for the use of any information through the EurekAlert system.