The central estimate of the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C is 130 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) (from the beginning of 2025). This would be exhausted in a little more than three years at current levels of CO2 emissions, according to the latest Indicators of Global Climate Change study published today in the journal Earth System Science Data, and the budget for 1.6°C or 1.7°C could be exceeded within nine years.  

Exposure to wildfire smoke and heat stress can negatively affect birth outcomes for women, especially in climate-vulnerable neighborhoods, according to a new USC study. The study is one of the first to show that living in areas more susceptible to the harmful effects of climate-related exposures can significantly alter the effects of heat stress on adverse birth outcomes, even among women exposed to these conditions in the month before becoming pregnant. The research team examined 713 births among MADRES participants between 2016 and 2020. The team used data from CalFIRE (California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection) to identify the location, size, and duration of every wildland fire in southern California during the study period. They used the NOAA hazard mapping system to calculate the smoke density from each fire and applied sophisticated modeling methods to calculate ground-level smoke concentrations, estimating how much particle pollution—tiny droplets of black carbon, soot, and burned vegetation—the women in the cohort were exposed to during these events based on their daily residential location histories. They also pinpointed those LA neighborhoods that are most vulnerable to climate risks with mapping data from the California Urban Heat Island Index and the US Climate Vulnerability Index, two geospatial tools that analyze and map layers of data. They found that greater exposure to wildfire smoke and excessive heat during the month before conception and the first trimester of pregnancy was associated with greater odds of having a small-for-gestational-age (SGA) baby. For women living in the most climate-vulnerable neighborhoods, the study showed the effect of heat stress during preconception on the likelihood of an SGA birth almost doubled. The researchers also found an association between pregnant women exposed to moderate smoke-density days in the first trimester and having a low-birth-weight baby, or an infant weighing less than five pounds, eight ounces.

Prescribed burns are important for land management and preventing wildfires, but a new study finds these managed fires are also significant contributors to air pollution in the southeastern United States – particularly in areas with large minority and low-income populations. The study also finds these air quality impacts could become more pronounced in the decades ahead as the effects of climate change become more pronounced.

Can artificial delegates—autonomous agents that make decisions on our behalf—help us reach better outcomes in situations where collective failure looms, such as climate change policymaking or the urgent response required during pandemics? A new behavioural experiment led by Professor Tom Lenaerts (VUB/ULB) sheds light on this pressing question. The findings are surprising: individuals who entrust their decisions to digital representatives tend to behave more generically pro-socially, but this does not automatically lead to better outcomes.