New research reveals hailstones follow simpler growth paths than previously believed, with implications for severe weather forecasting

The findings reveal that, although the ensemble mean of the ECMWF model has limited forecasting ability for extreme cold events after two weeks, some ensemble members exhibit significantly high forecasting skill. The members with high forecasting skill can accurately predict the rapid change of surface air temperature and the intensity of the minimum temperature during an extreme cold event. This mainly depends on the accurate prediction of the atmospheric circulation situation in Eurasia (sea level pressure and 500-hPa geopotential height).