Researchers from the Institute for Environmental Sciences (IVM) at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam have developed DYNAMO-M, a cutting-edge global agent-based model that simulates how 13 million farming households in coastal regions worldwide will respond to the escalating threats of coastal flooding and saltwater intrusion caused by sea level rise (SLR). Presented at the EGU General Assembly 2025 in Vienna, DYNAMO-M utilizes discounted expected utility (DEU) theory to model human decision-making, simulating the choices farmers might face: stay and absorb losses, adapt by using salt-tolerant crops and elevated homes, or migrate inland.

The model tracks these decisions year by year, spanning from 2020 to 2080, and covers 23 major food crops in flood-prone regions globally. It identifies critical migration hotspots and potential shifts in land use, especially in vulnerable coastal areas like Florida, New York, Japan, China, the Philippines, and Italy. Furthermore, DYNAMO-M highlights the vulnerability of regions located in 1 in 100-year floodplains, which are at heightened risk due to rising seas.

In addition to predicting displacement, the model evaluates the impact of various interventions, including insurance schemes and government policies. Findings show that small subsidies and strategic support can significantly enhance adaptive capacity, reducing the need for migration and allowing affected communities to remain resilient despite rising seas.

This research pushes the boundaries of climate risk modeling by offering actionable insights into how farming communities can adapt to climate change and continue to thrive. DYNAMO-M provides valuable tools for policymakers, insurers, and global development agencies working to support coastal agricultural communities. The study demonstrates the urgency of addressing climate-induced risks and the importance of proactive, sustainable solutions. For more information, visit www.coastmove.org.

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