Ten years ago, on 12 December 2015, the Paris Climate Agreement was signed at the UN Climate Conference. In order to limit global warming to well below two degrees, only a certain amount of CO₂ may be emitted worldwide. While the focus was originally on national emission targets, more than 200 subnational regions and almost 300 cities have now adopted their own targets. But how many emissions are they fairly entitled to? Researchers at the University of Graz have now developed transparent criteria for fair distribution at the subnational level for the first time and determined corresponding greenhouse gas budgets for all European regions. The distributive justice framework and analysis, published today in the scientific journal Nature Communications, may serve as a useful starting point, and can be operationalised for other countries, e. g. the USA or China.

A comprehensive policy review published in ECNU Review of Education examines Thailand's ongoing competency-based education reform during the 21st century, revealing that while the system has been developed systematically, it suffers from a lack of unified ideologies and unclear communication regarding the curriculum's driving forces. Researcher Jatupol Sangwanglao analyzed publicly available policy documents to trace the historical development and ideological foundations of Thai competency-based education, highlighting significant challenges for stakeholders involved in the reform process.

Abstract

Purpose – This paper aims to identify the macro variables that affect China’s ETS market through a mixed-frequency sampling data with a variable selection model.

Design/methodology/approach – This paper focuses on the Hubei, Guangdong and Shenzhen ETS in China. It integrates exogenous factors, in aspect of economic, financial, energy and environment, to identify key drivers of ETS market volatility. First, this study applies the GARCH-MIDAS model to process mixed-frequency data. Second, this paper employs the Lasso method to select the most predictive factors and enhance volatility forecasting. Finally, this paper evaluates the effectiveness of the conclusions through model parameter estimation, out-of-sample prediction, robustness test and economic value evaluation.

Findings – First, China’s ETS market volatility is primarily driven by the energy sector, with limited influence from policy and environmental factors. Second, ETS market volatility varies across regions. The power sector strongly influences the Hubei ETS market, whereas the Guangdong and Shenzhen ETS markets are more affected by the energy market. Third, out-of-sample analysis and robustness tests statistically indicate that the GARCH-MIDAS-Adaptive-Lasso model enhances forecasting accuracy.

Originality/value – First, this paper integrates multidimensional factors into the model. Second, this paper combines the adaptive Lasso method with the GARCH-MIDAS model to analyse the volatility of China’s ETS market. This method addresses both multicollinearity and variable selection challenges in mixed-frequency data. Third, this paper offers valuable insights for other developing countries seeking to establish or enhance ETS systems.