NTU Singapore-led study reveals El Niño could reduce life expectancy gains by 2.8 years by 2100, cause trillions in economic losses
Peer-Reviewed Publication
Updates every hour. Last Updated: 27-May-2026 03:15 ET (27-May-2026 07:15 GMT/UTC)
A new interdisciplinary study led by researchers from Nanyang Technological University, Singapore (NTU Singapore), with collaborators from the City University of Hong Kong, has found that El Niño events significantly reduce life expectancy across high-income Pacific Rim countries, resulting in economic losses of up to US$35 trillion by the end of the 21st century.
Using over six decades of mortality records from 10 high-income Pacific Rim countries, the research team shows that El Niño is a persistent driver of health and economic loss, not just a short-term weather anomaly. El Niño-driven climate extremes, such as heatwaves and air pollution, disrupt healthcare systems and raise long-term mortality risks, particularly among vulnerable populations.
The research, published in the scientific journal Nature Climate Change and part of NTU’s Climate Transformation Programme, shows that El Niño events not only cause immediate health impacts but also persistently slow long-term improvements in mortality rates, leading to enduring reductions in life expectancy.
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