Researchers from BI Norwegian Business School and NHH Norwegian School of Economics have developed a new behavioral credit-risk model that integrates credit and debit transactions. The model significantly outperforms state-of-the-art machine learning methods in predicting credit card delinquency and offers clearer insight into the behavioral drivers behind repayment problems.

Abstract

Purpose – This study aims to explore the impacts of U.S. debt ceiling uncertainty on crude oil markets and further reveal the specific influence mechanisms.

Design/methodology/approach – This paper introduces a debt ceiling uncertainty index based on news reports and selects six representative crude oil futures and spot markets to investigate the heterogeneous impacts of U.S. debt ceiling uncertainty on crude oil markets. More specifically, on the one hand, the nonparametric causality-inquantiles test method is used to discuss the asymmetric impacts of debt ceiling uncertainty on the different conditional distributions of crude oil series. On the other hand, the dynamic effects of debt ceiling uncertainty on crude oil markets are analyzed, combining with the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model.

Findings – The conclusions of this paper are as follows: First, the U.S. debt ceiling uncertainty has obvious nonlinear impacts on each crude oil market, and the effects are greater under the normal condition of crude oil markets rather than under their extreme conditions. Second, the shocks from debt ceiling uncertainty to crude oil markets are mainly illustrated as negative and can be significantly enhanced by important debt-related events. Over time, the reactions of crude oil markets turn to weak positive and gradually dissipate after 6 months. Finally, enterprise production, investor sentiment and government shutdown play important roles as transmission intermediaries for the influence of debt ceiling uncertainty on the crude oil market.

Originality/value – The findings are beneficial for investors to accurately judge oil price trends and prevent investment losses caused by debt risks and also help producers prevent the impacts of crude oil price changes on production and operation activities. Moreover, it is conducive to the management department to maintain the stability of the crude oil market, thus enabling the crude oil financial market to better serve the real economy.

As financial technology matures and cryptocurrencies become increasingly popular, the security of blockchains used to process these transactions has emerged as a significant concern. Prof. Allen Men Ho AU, Associate Head (Research and Development) and Professor of the Department of Computing at The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, has introduced the Regulatable Privacy-Preserving Smart Contracts (RPSC), a smart contract system that effectively balances privacy with public transparency. RPSC’s compatibility has been demonstrated on Ethereum smart contract. As financial technology matures and cryptocurrencies become increasingly popular, the security of blockchains used to process these transactions has emerged as a significant concern. Prof. Allen Men Ho AU, Associate Head (Research and Development) and Professor of the Department of Computing at The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, has introduced the Regulatable Privacy-Preserving Smart Contracts (RPSC), a smart contract system that effectively balances privacy with public transparency. RPSC’s compatibility has been demonstrated on Ethereum smart contract.