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Systems that may appear similar at first glance can behave very differently near a tipping point. Their behavior depends on microscopic details, according to a new study by the Complexity Science Hub—findings that could impact risk assessments in economics and society.

Israel’s national earthquake warning system, “Truaa,” which became operational in 2022, has positioned the country alongside other advanced nations that utilize early warning systems for earthquakes. However, one of the main challenges in such systems is balancing speed and accuracy: a quick warning may save lives, but if it is based on limited data, it may be wrong and result in false alarms and unnecessary injuries. A new study conducted by Dr. Yonat Zwebner, a consumer behavior expert at the Arison School of Business at Reichman University, in collaboration with Dr. Ran Nof and Dr. Gony Biran from the Geological Survey of Israel, examined this trade-off between urgency and accuracy. The study analyzed statistical data, assessed the potential for injuries in the event of a warning, and conducted a large-scale survey to gauge public attitudes on the issue.